Bangor v Coleraine
18+NIFL Premiership · Sun 4 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Bangor win
- 22%
- Draw
- 20%
- Coleraine win
- 58%
FootyGrounds prediction
Coleraine to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Coleraine strength rating 1675 v Bangor 1571
- Coleraine away record this season: 4W 0D 0L
- Bangor home form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Coleraine +12 v Bangor -12
- Coleraine unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 45%, goals 68%, recent form 71%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 26 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model68%
- Recent-form model71%
Component disagreement: 25.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.