Arbroath v Queen's Park
18+Scottish Championship · Fri 25 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Arbroath win
- 51%
- Draw
- 23%
- Queen's Park win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Arbroath to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Arbroath strength rating 1553 v Queen's Park 1532
- Arbroath home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Queen's Park away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Arbroath -4 v Queen's Park -6
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 45%, recent form 66%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model66%
Component disagreement: 20.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.