Fiorentina v Napoli

18+

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 10:30

Data: excellent

Fiorentina win: 36%
Draw: 24%
Napoli win: 41%

FootyGrounds prediction

Napoli to win

Model probability 41%

Predicted scoreline

2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Napoli strength rating 1624 v Fiorentina 1599
Superior goal difference: Napoli +1 v Fiorentina -6
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 33%, goals 43%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model33%
Goals model43%
Recent-form model54%

Component disagreement: 21.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02), now 41%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:02. Read the methodology.