Barnsley v Leicester City
18+EFL League One · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Barnsley win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- Leicester City win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barnsley to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barnsley strength rating 1483 v Leicester City 1492
- Barnsley home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Leicester City away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Leicester City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 9.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.