Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South
18+Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Hamilton Academical win
- 73%
- Draw
- 13%
- Queen of the South win
- 14%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hamilton Academical to win
Model probability 73%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hamilton Academical strength rating 1545 v Queen of the South 1458
- Hamilton Academical home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Queen of the South away form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 15 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Hamilton Academical +12 v Queen of the South -15
- Hamilton Academical unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 73% (Elo 61%, goals 85%, recent form 80%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model61%
- Goals model85%
- Recent-form model80%
Component disagreement: 23.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 73% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:06), now 73%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.