Everton v Ipswich Town
18+Premier League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Everton win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Ipswich Town win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Everton to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Everton strength rating 1628 v Ipswich Town 1610
- Superior goal difference: Everton +2 v Ipswich Town -3
- Everton unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 56%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 11.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.