Stranraer v Edinburgh City
18+Scottish League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Stranraer win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Edinburgh City win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stranraer to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stranraer strength rating 1460 v Edinburgh City 1447
- Stranraer home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Edinburgh City away form: 1W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Stranraer +5 v Edinburgh City +2
- Stranraer unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 53%, recent form 49%)
Main uncertainty: Edinburgh City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model49%
Component disagreement: 4.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.