Athletic Club v RCD Espanyol
18+La Liga · Fri 20 Nov, 20:00
Data: good
- Athletic Club win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- RCD Espanyol win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Athletic Club strength rating 1627 v RCD Espanyol 1607
- Athletic Club home record this season: 2W 2D 1L
- RCD Espanyol away form: 2W 1D 3L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Athletic Club +3 v RCD Espanyol -1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 50%, goals 49%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model49%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 4.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.