Gateshead v Worthing
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Gateshead win
- 37%
- Draw
- 26%
- Worthing win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
Worthing to win
Model probability 37%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Worthing strength rating 1378 v Gateshead 1350
- Worthing away record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Gateshead home form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Worthing 0 v Gateshead -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 33%, goals 43%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Gateshead have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 9.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 37% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 37%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.