Greenock Morton v Raith Rovers
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Greenock Morton win
- 24%
- Draw
- 23%
- Raith Rovers win
- 53%
FootyGrounds prediction
Raith Rovers to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Raith Rovers strength rating 1591 v Greenock Morton 1519
- Raith Rovers away record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Greenock Morton home form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Raith Rovers +8 v Greenock Morton -8
- Raith Rovers have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 39%, goals 61%, recent form 72%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 33 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model39%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model72%
Component disagreement: 33.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.