Gateshead v Southend United
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Gateshead win
- 31%
- Draw
- 26%
- Southend United win
- 43%
FootyGrounds prediction
Southend United to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Southend United strength rating 1407 v Gateshead 1350
- Southend United away record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Gateshead home form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Southend United +6 v Gateshead -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 35%, goals 51%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Gateshead have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 15.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.