Altrincham v Hornchurch
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Altrincham win
- 45%
- Draw
- 24%
- Hornchurch win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Altrincham to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Altrincham strength rating 1365 v Hornchurch 1374
- Altrincham home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Hornchurch away form: 2W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
- Altrincham have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 12.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.