Nacional v Famalicão
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 19 Sept, 14:30
Data: excellent
- Nacional win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Famalicão win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Nacional to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Nacional strength rating 1597 v Famalicão 1608
- Nacional home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Famalicão away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 49%)
Main uncertainty: Famalicão are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model49%
Component disagreement: 8.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.