Kidderminster Harriers v Sutton United
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Kidderminster Harriers win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- Sutton United win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Kidderminster Harriers to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Kidderminster Harriers strength rating 1408 v Sutton United 1380
- Kidderminster Harriers home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Sutton United away form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Kidderminster Harriers +5 v Sutton United 0
- Kidderminster Harriers unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 51%, goals 51%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 4.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.