Aldershot Town v Carlisle United
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Aldershot Town win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Carlisle United win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Aldershot Town to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Aldershot Town strength rating 1400 v Carlisle United 1387
- Aldershot Town home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Carlisle United away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Aldershot Town +4 v Carlisle United +3
- Aldershot Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 48%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Carlisle United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 6.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.