Luton Town v Cambridge United
18+EFL League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Luton Town win
- 45%
- Draw
- 23%
- Cambridge United win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Luton Town to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Luton Town strength rating 1511 v Cambridge United 1515
- Luton Town home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
- Cambridge United away form: 2W 3D 0L, 8 scored / 6 conceded
- Luton Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 46%, recent form 42%)
Main uncertainty: Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model42%
Component disagreement: 4.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 27/10/2026, 12:20:06), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 27/10/2026, 14:20:06. Read the methodology.