VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund

18+

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 16:30

Data: good

VfB Stuttgart win: 36%
Draw: 24%
Borussia Dortmund win: 40%

FootyGrounds prediction

Borussia Dortmund to win

Model probability 40%

Predicted scoreline

2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Borussia Dortmund strength rating 1644 v VfB Stuttgart 1614
Superior goal difference: Borussia Dortmund +6 v VfB Stuttgart -2
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 33%, goals 45%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model33%
Goals model45%
Recent-form model45%

Component disagreement: 12.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 40%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.