RCD Espanyol v Elche
18+La Liga · Fri 18 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- RCD Espanyol win
- 59%
- Draw
- 19%
- Elche win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
RCD Espanyol to win
Model probability 59%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- RCD Espanyol strength rating 1623 v Elche 1584
- RCD Espanyol home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Elche away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: RCD Espanyol +2 v Elche -8
- Elche played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 53%, goals 62%, recent form 64%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model62%
- Recent-form model64%
Component disagreement: 10.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 59% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 59%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.