Dumbarton v The Spartans
18+Scottish League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Dumbarton win
- 32%
- Draw
- 26%
- The Spartans win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
The Spartans to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- The Spartans strength rating 1467 v Dumbarton 1407
- The Spartans away record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Dumbarton home form: 2W 0D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: The Spartans +7 v Dumbarton -9
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 36%, goals 53%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 18.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.