Angers v Troyes

18+

Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent

Angers win: 46%
Draw: 23%
Troyes win: 31%

FootyGrounds prediction

Angers to win

Model probability 46%

Predicted scoreline

2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Angers strength rating 1613 v Troyes 1603
Superior goal difference: Angers -1 v Troyes -5
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 48%, goals 52%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model48%
Goals model52%
Recent-form model31%

Component disagreement: 21.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 46% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 46%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.