Newcastle United v Hull City
18+Premier League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Newcastle United win
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- Hull City win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
Newcastle United to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Newcastle United strength rating 1616 v Hull City 1635
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 37%, recent form 30%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Hull City are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model30%
Component disagreement: 12.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.