Toulouse FC v Le Havre
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Toulouse FC win
- 42%
- Draw
- 26%
- Le Havre win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Toulouse FC to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Toulouse FC strength rating 1602 v Le Havre 1606
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 33%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model33%
Component disagreement: 12.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.