San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers
18+Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 02:30
Data: good
- San Jose Earthquakes win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Portland Timbers win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
San Jose Earthquakes to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- San Jose Earthquakes strength rating 1620 v Portland Timbers 1620
- Superior goal difference: San Jose Earthquakes +8 v Portland Timbers 0
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 46%, goals 54%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model54%
Component disagreement: 7.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.