Burton Albion v Luton Town
18+EFL League One · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Burton Albion win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Luton Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Burton Albion to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Burton Albion strength rating 1498 v Luton Town 1519
- Burton Albion home record this season: 2W 4D 1L
- Luton Town away form: 2W 0D 3L, 12 scored / 13 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 40%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Luton Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 7.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.