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Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg

18+

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Eintracht Frankfurt win
33%
Draw
22%
SC Freiburg win
45%

FootyGrounds prediction

SC Freiburg to win

Model probability 45%

Predicted scoreline

2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score25 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

  • SC Freiburg strength rating 1649 v Eintracht Frankfurt 1618
  • Superior goal difference: SC Freiburg +9 v Eintracht Frankfurt -1
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 33%, goals 49%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 31 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

  • Elo strength model33%
  • Goals model49%
  • Recent-form model64%

Component disagreement: 30.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 45%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.