FootyGrounds — football is more than 90 minutes
Current language: English
Sign in

Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln

18+

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Hamburger SV win
34%
Draw
23%
1. FC Köln win
43%

FootyGrounds prediction

1. FC Köln to win

Model probability 43%

Predicted scoreline

2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score26 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

  • 1. FC Köln strength rating 1614 v Hamburger SV 1582
  • Superior goal difference: 1. FC Köln -2 v Hamburger SV -12
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 33%, goals 49%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

  • Elo strength model33%
  • Goals model49%
  • Recent-form model54%

Component disagreement: 20.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 43%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.