Salford City v Fleetwood Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Salford City win
- 38%
- Draw
- 27%
- Fleetwood Town win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Salford City to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Salford City strength rating 1430 v Fleetwood Town 1454
- Salford City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 34%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model34%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 7.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.