Trefelin v The New Saints
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 26 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Trefelin win
- 18%
- Draw
- 16%
- The New Saints win
- 66%
FootyGrounds prediction
The New Saints to win
Model probability 66%
Predicted scoreline
1–3 (range 0–2 to 2–4)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- The New Saints strength rating 1693 v Trefelin 1548
- The New Saints away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
- Trefelin home form: 0W 1D 4L, 1 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: The New Saints +21 v Trefelin -20
- The New Saints unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 66% (Elo 53%, goals 79%, recent form 72%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model79%
- Recent-form model72%
Component disagreement: 26.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 66% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 66%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.