Stevenage v Mansfield Town
18+EFL League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Stevenage win
- 43%
- Draw
- 26%
- Mansfield Town win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stevenage to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stevenage strength rating 1509 v Mansfield Town 1523
- Stevenage home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Mansfield Town away form: 2W 1D 3L, 10 scored / 11 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 43%, goals 44%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: Mansfield Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 3.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.