Barry Town United v Connah's Quay Nomads
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 26 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Barry Town United win
- 44%
- Draw
- 23%
- Connah's Quay Nomads win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barry Town United to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barry Town United strength rating 1672 v Connah's Quay Nomads 1666
- Barry Town United home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
- Connah's Quay Nomads away form: 3W 0D 1L, 8 scored / 4 conceded
- Barry Town United have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 47%, goals 41%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: Connah's Quay Nomads are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 5.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.