Newport County v Grimsby Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Newport County win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Grimsby Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Newport County to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Newport County strength rating 1431 v Grimsby Town 1454
- Newport County home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Grimsby Town away form: 0W 3D 0L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 38%)
Main uncertainty: Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model38%
Component disagreement: 3.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.