Briton Ferry Llansawel v Colwyn Bay
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 3 Oct, 13:30
Data: good
- Briton Ferry Llansawel win
- 32%
- Draw
- 27%
- Colwyn Bay win
- 41%
FootyGrounds prediction
Colwyn Bay to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Briton Ferry Llansawel 1580
- Colwyn Bay away record this season: 1W 1D 3L
- Briton Ferry Llansawel home form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Colwyn Bay +3 v Briton Ferry Llansawel -10
- Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 36%, goals 47%, recent form 45%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model45%
Component disagreement: 10.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.