Leyton Orient v Plymouth Argyle
18+EFL League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Leyton Orient win
- 43%
- Draw
- 23%
- Plymouth Argyle win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Leyton Orient to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Leyton Orient strength rating 1504 v Plymouth Argyle 1507
- Leyton Orient home record this season: 0W 0D 3L
- Plymouth Argyle away form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Leyton Orient +3 v Plymouth Argyle +2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 46%, goals 48%, recent form 30%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. Plymouth Argyle are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model30%
Component disagreement: 18.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.