Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC
18+Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30
Data: good
- Philadelphia Union win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Orlando City SC win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
3–2 (range 2–1 to 4–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Philadelphia Union strength rating 1620 v Orlando City SC 1620
- Superior goal difference: Philadelphia Union +7 v Orlando City SC -12
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 46%, goals 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model62%
Component disagreement: 15.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.