Hibernian v Aberdeen
18+Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Hibernian win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Aberdeen win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hibernian to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hibernian strength rating 1604 v Aberdeen 1618
- Hibernian home record this season: 0W 0D 3L
- Aberdeen away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 41%, recent form 33%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model33%
Component disagreement: 10.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.