Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg
18+Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Werder Bremen win
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Augsburg win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
Werder Bremen to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Werder Bremen strength rating 1619 v FC Augsburg 1644
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 36%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: FC Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model36%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 7.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.