Rayo Vallecano v Valencia CF
18+La Liga · Sat 21 Nov, 15:15
Data: good
- Rayo Vallecano win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Valencia CF win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Rayo Vallecano to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Rayo Vallecano strength rating 1593 v Valencia CF 1579
- Rayo Vallecano home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Valencia CF away form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Rayo Vallecano -8 v Valencia CF -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 5.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.