Harrogate Town v Hornchurch
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Harrogate Town win
- 55%
- Draw
- 20%
- Hornchurch win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Harrogate Town to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Harrogate Town strength rating 1407 v Hornchurch 1374
- Harrogate Town home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Hornchurch away form: 2W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Harrogate Town +7 v Hornchurch -2
- Harrogate Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 52%, goals 59%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 6.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 55% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.