Crusaders v Bangor
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Crusaders win
- 65%
- Draw
- 16%
- Bangor win
- 19%
FootyGrounds prediction
Crusaders to win
Model probability 65%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Crusaders strength rating 1627 v Bangor 1571
- Crusaders home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Bangor away form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Crusaders +1 v Bangor -12
- Crusaders have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 56%, goals 68%, recent form 78%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model56%
- Goals model68%
- Recent-form model78%
Component disagreement: 21.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 65% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 65%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.