Hornchurch v Aldershot Town
18+National League · Tue 29 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Hornchurch win
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- Aldershot Town win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hornchurch to win
Model probability 37%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score31 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hornchurch strength rating 1374 v Aldershot Town 1400
- Hornchurch home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Aldershot Town away form: 2W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 3 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 41%, goals 35%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Aldershot Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Aldershot Town have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 7.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 37% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 37%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.