St Mirren v Dundee United
18+Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- St Mirren win
- 54%
- Draw
- 21%
- Dundee United win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
St Mirren to win
Model probability 54%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- St Mirren strength rating 1630 v Dundee United 1604
- St Mirren home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Dundee United away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: St Mirren +2 v Dundee United -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 51%, goals 56%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 5.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 54% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 54%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.