The Spartans v Kelty Hearts
18+Scottish League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- The Spartans win
- 58%
- Draw
- 18%
- Kelty Hearts win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
The Spartans to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- The Spartans strength rating 1467 v Kelty Hearts 1426
- The Spartans home record this season: 1W 3D 0L
- Kelty Hearts away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: The Spartans +7 v Kelty Hearts -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 54%, goals 66%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model66%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 11.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.