Gillingham v Newport County
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Gillingham win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Newport County win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Gillingham to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Gillingham strength rating 1449 v Newport County 1431
- Gillingham home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Newport County away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Gillingham +2 v Newport County -1
- Gillingham unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 51%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 17.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.