Oxford United v Cambridge United
18+EFL League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Oxford United win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Cambridge United win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Oxford United to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Oxford United strength rating 1526 v Cambridge United 1511
- Cambridge United away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Oxford United +6 v Cambridge United +2
- Oxford United have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 54%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 10.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.