Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union
18+Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30
Data: good
- Sporting Kansas City win
- 36%
- Draw
- 22%
- Philadelphia Union win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score21 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Philadelphia Union strength rating 1620 v Sporting Kansas City 1620
- Superior goal difference: Philadelphia Union +7 v Sporting Kansas City -33
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 30%, goals 58%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model30%
- Goals model58%
Component disagreement: 27.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.