Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano
18+La Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 15:15
Data: good
- Real Sociedad win
- 58%
- Draw
- 18%
- Rayo Vallecano win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Real Sociedad to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Real Sociedad strength rating 1634 v Rayo Vallecano 1593
- Real Sociedad home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Rayo Vallecano away form: 0W 2D 3L, 6 scored / 13 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Real Sociedad +1 v Rayo Vallecano -8
- Real Sociedad have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 54%, goals 61%, recent form 63%)
Main uncertainty: Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model63%
Component disagreement: 9.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.