Cardiff Metropolitan University v Haverfordwest County
18+Cymru Premier · Tue 29 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Cardiff Metropolitan University win
- 62%
- Draw
- 18%
- Haverfordwest County win
- 21%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cardiff Metropolitan University to win
Model probability 62%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cardiff Metropolitan University strength rating 1648 v Haverfordwest County 1586
- Cardiff Metropolitan University home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Haverfordwest County away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Cardiff Metropolitan University +9 v Haverfordwest County -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 57%, goals 69%, recent form 58%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Haverfordwest County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model69%
- Recent-form model58%
Component disagreement: 11.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 62% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 62%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.