Le Mans v Lorient
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Le Mans win
- 42%
- Draw
- 24%
- Lorient win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Le Mans to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Le Mans strength rating 1615 v Lorient 1620
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 43%, recent form 32%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Lorient are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model32%
Component disagreement: 13.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.