Oldham Athletic v Salford City
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 16:30
Data: excellent
- Oldham Athletic win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Salford City win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Oldham Athletic to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Oldham Athletic strength rating 1438 v Salford City 1430
- Oldham Athletic home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Salford City away form: 0W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Oldham Athletic +1 v Salford City -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 50%, recent form 58%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Salford City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model58%
Component disagreement: 10.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.