Atlético Madrid v CA Osasuna
18+La Liga · Wed 16 Sept, 17:00
Data: excellent
- Atlético Madrid win
- 54%
- Draw
- 21%
- CA Osasuna win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Model probability 54%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Atlético Madrid strength rating 1642 v CA Osasuna 1611
- Superior goal difference: Atlético Madrid +4 v CA Osasuna -3
- Atlético Madrid have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 52%, goals 58%, recent form 49%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model58%
- Recent-form model49%
Component disagreement: 8.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 54% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 54%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.